In January the American Senate looked settled. Republicans held it 53 to 47, the map favoured them, and a Democratic majority was something almost nobody took seriously. Then the United States went to war with Iran. Prices rose. Now, as Elizabeth Melimopoulos sets out for Al Jazeera, anger at President Donald Trump has reached states where Republicans had long stopped bothering to worry.

The sum is short. Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats. Voting ends on Tuesday, November 3.

Two men named Dan Sullivan

Alaska gave Trump a 13-point margin in 2024. This year the Republican senator, Dan Sullivan, faces Mary Peltola, a Democrat, on a ranked-choice ballot with four names on it. One of the other two is an independent who is also called Dan Sullivan. Republicans say Democrats recruited him to confuse voters. Trump called it “Total election fraud.” Peltola called the row “yet another diversion” from the cost of living. She raised $33m in October, against about $14m for the senator, while Republican groups have outspent Democratic ones $42m to $38m. Peltola holds a narrow lead, and RealClearPolling’s average has her 1.2 points ahead.

Fertiliser, tariffs, raids

On the plains, the war shows up as a bill. In Iowa, where Joni Ernst is retiring, farmers are paying for tariffs and for dearer fuel and fertiliser. The Republican nominee, Representative Ashley Hinson, has called for an “immediate end” to the war, though PolitiFact notes that she voted against six resolutions to end American involvement. Her Democratic opponent, state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medallist, has raised $20m to her $14m. Trump carried Iowa by 13 points. Hinson is narrowly ahead.

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and Trump won it by 16 points. Senator Roger Marshall is nonetheless narrowly behind Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a Methodist megachurch, in a seat that has joined the map this autumn. Trump and Vice-President JD Vance have both come to campaign. The complaints are farm costs, tariffs and immigration raids in the state’s southwest, and Marshall himself has criticised parts of those ICE operations. Hamilton has raised $14m to Marshall’s $6m, and Democratic groups lead in outside spending, $28m to $22m.

When a senator has to argue with his own government’s police to keep his seat, the ground under him has moved. That is a reflection, not a forecast.

Texas, where the money runs out of words

No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and Trump took it by about 14 points. Attorney General Ken Paxton beat Senator John Cornyn in a run-off with Trump’s endorsement. In leaked audio he then told donors that Trump’s midterm convention had hurt his campaign. His opponent is James Talarico, a Democratic state representative.

The money is on a scale that is hard to take in. Republican groups have spent $300m, Democratic groups $76m. Elon Musk gave $158m to a pro-Paxton super PAC. Talarico has still outraised Paxton by $110m and, as of September 30, had $9.6m more in the bank. The polls show a dead heat or a slim Talarico lead. RealClearPolling’s Texas average puts him at 48.8 to Paxton’s 47.0. Individual surveys disagree on how close it is: CNN had Talarico up 49 to 43, Fox News had a 49-49 tie, and Quantus Insights had Paxton ahead, 48.7 to 47.6.

The seats Democrats must hold

Every gain is wasted if a seat is lost somewhere else. Georgia, which Trump won by 2 points, was first seen as a Republican pickup. Senator Jon Ossoff, spoken of as a possible 2028 presidential contender, has led Representative Mike Collins throughout. He has outraised him by nearly $126m and had $15.1m on hand against $1.1m.

Michigan may be the closest race for a Democratic seat. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who narrowly beat Representative Haley Stevens in the primary, faces Mike Rogers, a Republican former congressman, in a state Trump carried. The talk is of Canada-related tariffs and the cost of living, the same arithmetic Democrats have been running at the petrol pump. A pro-Israel super PAC spent $30m trying to stop El-Sayed in the primary, has spent at least $493,000 against him since, and could spend up to $9m more. He has raised $45m to Rogers’s nearly $21m, but Republican groups have outspent Democratic ones $136m to about $70m. El-Sayed is narrowly ahead.

In New Hampshire, which Kamala Harris won by nearly 3 points, Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Representative Chris Pappas leads John Sununu, the former senator Shaheen beat in 2008, by 5 to 8 points. Pappas has raised $24m to Sununu’s $6m, though Republican groups lead in outside spending, $37m to $20m.

Ohio and Maine

In Ohio’s special election Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, leads by 3 to 5 points over Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to Vance’s old seat. Brown has raised $68m to Husted’s nearly $20m, and Republican groups have spent $232m to the Democrats’ $118m. The winner has to run again in 2028.

Maine voted against Trump in 2024, and its race is close. Susan Collins admits she is not the president’s favourite senator, and he will not campaign for her. She voted to convict him over January 6. Democrats say her opposition comes only when it costs nothing, and they point to her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. Her opponent, former state Senate president Troy Jackson, came in only in July, after Graham Platner withdrew over sexual assault allegations, which Platner denied. Jackson has refused to apologise for telling Collins to “shut up” in a debate. He has raised about $26.9m to her $25.2m, while Republican groups lead outside spending $76m to $40m.

North Carolina, where the party has moved on

In North Carolina the Republicans appear to have given up. Thom Tillis is retiring. Roy Cooper, the former Democratic governor, leads by double digits in a state Trump won by 3 points. His opponent is Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman whom Trump recruited. Cooper has raised $50m and had $9m left. Whatley raised $14m and had $900,000. Trump called Cooper’s likely win “crazy”, and Republican allies are moving money to other states. He has told supporters to “pretend I’m on the ticket because essentially I am.”

Kelly Spivey, who runs a food pantry in the state, describes families that have to choose between medicine, food and day care.