Some numbers are too big to grasp, so people divide them into days. That is how the European Union now measures its trade deficit with China: more than €1bn ($1.12bn) every day, as AFP and Reuters reported in a dispatch carried by Al Jazeera. Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s trade commissioner, has brought that figure to Beijing. He meets China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, on Thursday and Friday.

The deficit is one of two items on the table. The other is China’s restrictions on exports of rare earths and other critical minerals. Months of talks led up to this meeting. Nobody can yet say where it leads.

A deadline Brussels set itself

Formally, the meeting is the second session of the EU-China Trade and Investment Council, a forum the two sides launched in June. The European Commission set October as the month by which it expected real results. On 17 September Šefčovič and Wang held a video call of about an hour, reported by Euronews and by Agence Europe. Afterwards the Commission said its aim was that “first concrete outcomes are delivered at the second session of the Trade and Investment Council in Beijing in October”, calling this “a signal that we are moving from rhetoric to results”. It added a sentence that read like a warning: “That outcome needs to be credible.”

The day before the call, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gave her State of the Union address to MEPs. “Words are good. But deeds are better,” she said, and she signalled that she was ready to use every trade defence tool the Union has. In an interview with Euronews, Šefčovič put it in a negotiator’s terms. If there is no “deliverable” for EU leaders, he said, “the political interest would be to look for the solution through other instruments.” Those leaders meet later in October, and China is expected to be high on their agenda.

A deadline set by a bureaucracy is first a promise it makes to itself. If October passes with nothing to show, Beijing loses nothing. Brussels loses the credibility it asked the other side to provide.

Two lists

Europe’s list is long. It wants the trade relationship rebalanced and Chinese exports to the EU curbed. It wants export licences for European companies that arrive reliably. It wants the rare earth truce extended, along with a promise that the supply will not be cut off again. Market access also came up in the September call. China’s list is short: keep access to the EU’s 450 million consumers and avoid any forced cut in the goods it sells them. Each side’s demand is the other side’s concession.

Who holds the minerals

Rare earths are where the balance of power is clearest. China dominates both the mining and the processing of these minerals almost entirely. Europe’s green technology, defence and car industries depend on them. A year ago, during its trade war with the United States, Beijing blocked their export. Supplies resumed under a truce, which is the arrangement Europe now hopes to extend and make dependable.

Here is a reflection, not a fact from any ministry: whoever controls the mine also controls the timetable. Europe’s factories are on Beijing’s timetable, not their own. The dispute has also spread into the defence industry, as a Forbes preview of the talks noted, which is where depending on someone else’s minerals stops being only a matter of trade.

The other instruments

The “other instruments” Šefčovič mentioned already exist. Brussels has anti-dumping duties and anti-subsidy tariffs, and it is planning a diversification instrument to reduce its reliance on Chinese critical minerals. The Commission has also proposed ways to protect the single market, including a “European preference” for products made in Europe. Beijing has threatened to retaliate against those proposals.

Each of Europe’s options costs something. European brands that once sold handbags and sneakers to Chinese buyers have watched that income shrink. Across the Channel, London is considering a 45 percent tariff on Chinese electric cars. Every capital is working out how much protection it can afford and how much dependence it can tolerate.

The talks end on Friday. By the rate Brussels itself uses, the deficit will have grown by more than another €2bn over the two days.