There is a useful way to think about the relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, and it is the way you would think about any other long-term commercial arrangement: one party has delivered the goods, the other has provided the branding, and both sides periodically leak to the press about how dissatisfied they are. Since first entering the White House in 2017, as Al Jazeera recounts, Trump has delivered on what it calls a right-wing Israeli wish list and pursued a foreign policy that buoyed Netanyahu’s political fortunes. Netanyahu, for his part, has marketed himself at home as the indispensable steward of Israel’s most important relationship, riding out the occasional public criticism and leaked discontent from Trump without any concrete policy change.
So you might expect that, with Israel voting on October 27, the endorsement would be automatic. It has not been. Asked on Monday why he had not endorsed in the Israeli election, Trump replied: “We haven’t even thought about it.” When a reporter noted that he has endorsed political candidates before, he left the door ajar, as the Jerusalem Post reports: “Well, we may be. I may be doing something,” before repeating, “I may be. I may be doing something.”
Imagine, purely as a hypothetical, that you are Netanyahu. Your entire pitch to the Israeli voter, for years, has been: I alone can manage the Americans. And now the American in question, asked directly two weeks before the election whether he supports your re-election, says he hasn’t thought about it. Not “Bibi’s a friend but I don’t interfere.” Not even a criticism. Just: it hasn’t come up.
Sure.
The race he is not endorsing in
The context makes the silence louder. Netanyahu’s Likud party and the far-right coalition it leads face an increasing threat from Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, and the opposition bloc he is trying to assemble, according to Al Jazeera. An endorsement from Trump remains a genuinely valuable asset in Israeli politics — the Jerusalem Post notes the open question of whether he intends to play a role in the campaign’s final stretch — which is exactly why withholding it is a meaningful act. An endorsement you have already given is worth nothing. An endorsement you might give, maybe, if things go well, is a mechanism for keeping a prime minister attentive.
And there are things Netanyahu reportedly wants. The Times of Israel reports, citing a Channel 12 account of officials familiar with the talks, that Netanyahu urged Trump last week to renew the fighting against Iran before Israel’s election — and before the US midterms a week later. The prime minister’s office denies the report. You do not have to credit it to see the structure: a leader whose domestic position is at risk would very much like some visible American action before voters decide, and the American president is the person who decides whether he gets it.
Strip away the diplomacy and this is a familiar contract problem. Netanyahu’s side of the bargain is largely performed: the alignment, the praise, the years of presenting Trump as Israel’s great friend. Trump’s side — the endorsement — is the last unpaid invoice, and he has discovered, as he often does, that an unpaid invoice gives him leverage right up until the moment he pays it. Endorsing now converts his remaining influence into a photo op. Not endorsing keeps everyone guessing through October 27.
The catch is that options expire. If Eisenkot’s bloc wins without Trump’s help, the hedging will retroactively look like indifference, and the famously warm personal relationship will have ended with “we haven’t even thought about it.” If Netanyahu survives, he will have done it while the White House pointedly thought about other things, which rather undermines the campaign literature.
“I may be doing something” is, to be fair, the most honest sentence in politics. Everyone may be doing something. The deadline for doing it is two weeks away.