--- title: "The Senate Map Now Runs 10 Deep, Including a Kansas Seat Last Won by a Democrat in the 1930s" description: "CNN’s flip ranking grows as polls put Democrats ahead or close in Ohio, Alaska and Texas — all double-digit Trump states" author: "Nate Ledger" published: 2026-10-05T09:00:44.793Z modified: 2026-10-05T18:18:59Z url: https://rews.cc/a/the-senate-map-now-runs-10-deep-including-a-kansas-seat-last-967cba language: en tags: ["politics", "elections", "trump", "democrats", "senate", "us"] publisher: "Rews (https://rews.cc)" --- # The Senate Map Now Runs 10 Deep, Including a Kansas Seat Last Won by a Democrat in the 1930s *CNN’s flip ranking grows as polls put Democrats ahead or close in Ohio, Alaska and Texas — all double-digit Trump states* By Nate Ledger · October 5, 2026 · https://rews.cc/a/the-senate-map-now-runs-10-deep-including-a-kansas-seat-last-967cba ## In brief - CNN expands its list of flippable Senate seats from nine to ten, adding Kansas for the first time this year - Democrats need four GOP-held pickups while defending three seats; Trump’s approval is 34% in CNN’s Poll of Polls - North Carolina leads the ranking, with GOP groups cutting over $15 million in remaining ad bookings - Ohio and Alaska each move up two spots; polls show Brown and Peltola ahead - Texas jumps two spots, with polls split and Republicans mounting a nine-figure rescue for Paxton Four weeks before Election Day, the list of Senate seats that might change parties is getting longer rather than shorter, which is not how these lists usually behave in October. CNN’s ranking of the seats most likely to flip has expanded from nine to ten, making room for Kansas, a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years. Fresh polling also shows Democrats leading or competitive in Ohio, Alaska and Texas. All four states voted for President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. This builds on what we’ve been [watching all fall](https://rews.cc/a/the-2026-map-keeps-getting-bigger-the-counties-that-will-tel-101bde): a midterm where the battleground keeps refusing to stay in its usual shape. The arithmetic of the majority is the frame for everything else. Democrats need to gain four Republican-held seats while defending three of their own, including Michigan. Working in their favor: Trump’s approval rating sits at 34% in CNN’s Poll of Polls, dragged down by frustration over the economy and the war he launched against Iran, plus unusually strong Democratic performances in special elections and early signs of elevated early-voting turnout. Working against them: money. From the start of October through Election Day, Republicans are set to outspend Democrats on advertising in eight of the ten most competitive Senate races, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact — though the advantage is blunted somewhat, because GOP-aligned outside groups pay more per ratings point than Democratic candidates do. CNN’s ranking blends reporting, strategist conversations, fundraising, polling and the partisan environment, and comes with the standard disclaimer that it’s a snapshot, not a prophecy. ## North Carolina holds the top spot The seat most likely to flip remains North Carolina, where Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper has made affordability his centerpiece against GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and Trump ally running to replace Sen. Thom Tillis. An Elon University/YouGov poll released last month put Cooper up 11 points among likely voters. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main McConnell-aligned super PAC, is pausing its ad campaign there, and over the weekend Republican outside groups cut more than $15 million from their remaining Tar Heel ad bookings, per AdImpact — which in political-spending terms is closer to triage than strategy. Trump still campaigned with Whatley there last month, trying to rouse the base of a state he has won three times. ## Ohio and Alaska move up Ohio climbs two spots on the strength of former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost reelection by less than four points in 2024 and now leads Sen. Jon Husted in most polls. A New York Times/Siena University survey of likely voters in late September had it 49% to 46%, within the margin of error; a Marist poll of registered voters had Brown up eight. Brown’s favorability sits at 46% to Husted’s 37% — Husted, the former lieutenant governor, was appointed to fill JD Vance’s seat and simply has a shorter history with voters. Brown’s most effective line has been calling Husted “the face of data centers in Ohio,” an attack potent enough that the GOP’s own campaign arm has privately called the issue an “anchor” on his campaign. Senate Democrats blocked a Husted bill on data-center energy costs last week, and Trump spent Saturday in southwestern Ohio defending the data centers. Republicans, meanwhile, are rerunning their 2024 playbook of attack ads on transgender politics; Brown’s response ad features voters saying Ohio law already covers it. The spending disparity is real: GOP groups plan more than $80 million there through Election Day, against more than $50 million from Democrats. Alaska also rises two spots. It’s famously hard to poll, but a NYT/Siena survey of likely voters released Saturday found Democrat Mary Peltola leading Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43%. The race runs under ranked-choice voting, with a ballot quirk Republicans worry about: another GOP candidate also named Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher. Peltola, rated one of Democrats’ best recruits, has kept national figures like Kamala Harris at arm’s length while Sullivan tries to tie her to “lower-48 liberals.” Both candidates raced to praえse Trump’s announcement of a $54 billion South Korean investment in the Alaska LNG pipeline, with Peltola promising to continue “this bipartisan work.” Her campaign did hit turbulence with a New York Times report on allegations of hostile behavior toward aides; her campaign denied any pattern of abuse while acknowledging she has struggled at times since the deaths of her mother and husband in 2023 — and her state’s other Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, came to her defense. ## Maine slips but stays tight Maine drops two spots without getting less competitive. A University of New Hampshire poll last month showed Democrat Troy Jackson edging Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 47% — the first public survey with the Democrat ahead — while CNN/SSRS and NYT/Siena polls show no clear leader. Collins is structurally vulnerable in a state Kamala Harris carried by seven, and polling suggests the race turns on her and Trump, not on Jackson. Democrats have hammered her for siding with Trump on big votes, pointing to a ProPublica report alleging a pay-to-play scheme in her 2020 office (she calls it a “political hit job”); Republicans have spent millions on corruption and tax ads against Jackson, the former state Senate president. The two debate four times in ten days starting Tuesday. ## And then there’s Texas Texas jumps two spots as state Rep. James Talarico gives Democrats what they see as their most realistic shot at winning the state in three decades, thanks to his crossover appeal, unease over Attorney General Ken Paxton’s scandals and the leftward drift of Latino voters. A NYT/Siena poll taken over the final nine days of September put Talarico up 51% to 45% among likely voters; a Fox News poll released last week showed no clear leader, 51% to 49%. Republicans are mounting what CNN describes as a nine-figure rescue mission on Paxton’s behalf. That is the tell in this entire ranking: the party with the广告 money advantage is spending its nine figures defending Texas, which, until fairly recently, is where that money’s mere existence would have been the story.