---
title: "Strikes in the Black Sea Have Cut Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Exports by 60%"
description: "More than 210 attacks on commercial vessels since July have left the sea at its most dangerous since the invasion began."
author: "rews desk"
published: 2026-10-02T08:00:00Z
modified: 2026-10-02T09:16:39Z
url: https://rews.cc/a/strikes-in-the-black-sea-have-cut-russian-and-ukrainian-whea-b93db1
language: en
tags: ["war", "grain", "black-sea", "ukraine", "russia", "world"]
publisher: "Rews (https://rews.cc)"
---

# Strikes in the Black Sea Have Cut Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Exports by 60%

*More than 210 attacks on commercial vessels since July have left the sea at its most dangerous since the invasion began.*

By rews desk · October 2, 2026 · https://rews.cc/a/strikes-in-the-black-sea-have-cut-russian-and-ukrainian-whea-b93db1

## In brief

- More than 210 strikes hit commercial vessels in the Black Sea from July through September, the maritime risk firm Ambrey said
- Ambrey attributed 125 strikes to Ukraine and 88 to Russia; combined wheat exports are down 60% from a year ago
- World wheat prices are up 15% from last year, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization reports
- A July strike on the Golden Leo near Odesa killed 10 people; insurers have widened the sea’s high-risk zone
- Turkey-led efforts to secure a Black Sea truce have failed; the 2022 grain initiative collapsed after Russia withdrew

The war in the Black Sea has grown more intense than at any point since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, maritime analysts say, with more than 210 strikes on commercial vessels between July and the end of September driving the two countries’ combined wheat exports down 60 percent from a year earlier.

Ambrey, a British maritime risk firm, attributed 125 of the strikes to Ukraine and 88 to Russia. Since mid-July, Russia has escalated attacks meant to halt Ukraine’s exports and batter its economy, while Kyiv has struck vessels tied to Moscow’s shadow fleet and Russia’s port infrastructure, trying to choke off the money that finances the war.

Russia and Ukraine together supply roughly a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. World wheat prices are up 15 percent from a year ago, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, driven in part by the Black Sea fighting, and efforts led by Turkey to broker even a limited truce at sea have so far failed.

Russia’s Defense Ministry says it targets only military assets; after striking a cargo vessel in the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk on Thursday, officials accused the ship of supplying the military. Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association, said Russia is hitting purely civilian ships and pointed to a July missile strike on the Golden Leo near the port of Odesa that killed 10 people aboard a vessel Ukrainian officials said was carrying corn. “It’s like hunting for an elephant from a helicopter,” Mr. Barinov said in an interview in Odesa, because merchant ships are slow, cannot maneuver and carry no defenses.

Ukraine has done damage of its own. In August, a large missile and drone attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk hit a naval base and damaged two major grain export terminals. London insurers have since expanded the stretch of the Black Sea they treat as high risk, as ships are struck farther south, and Ambrey counts more than 50 pieces of unexploded ordnance found outside Russian and Ukrainian waters this year.

For Ukraine’s navy, the danger is measured in minutes. Mykola Lupar, a 29-year-old commander whose patrol boat works out of Chornomorsk, said his crew can rarely stay on open water longer than that, with Russian jet-powered drones launched from Crimea beyond the reach of their machine guns. “We are trying to find some windows in time between Russian attacks to patrol, to search for mines and some explosive materials,” he said. “For the merchant fleet, I would say there’s almost no chance to stay safe in our waters.”

Mr. Barinov warned that the consequences reach past Ukraine: “very soon — October, November latest — everybody will feel the shortage of food in our region, unfortunately.”

In 2022 the United Nations and Turkey negotiated the Black Sea Grain Initiative to keep cargo moving to Ukrainian ports; it collapsed a year later when Russia refused to renew it. Ukraine then opened its own corridor, routing ships along the coasts of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. That route, too, has now been disrupted by Russia’s widening attacks.

Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said global food prices hit a record, not counting inflation, after the invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. This time, she said in a Zoom interview, a large share of Russia’s own export capacity is offline as well: “Now it’s not just Russia attacking Ukraine, it’s Ukraine also attacking Russia, and those things are happening at the same time.” Prices may not reach 2022 levels, she said, but wheat will likely keep rising, with the fighting compounding the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and droughts that El Niño brought to wheat-growing regions.

In Odesa this week, residents who used a rare drone-free Tuesday afternoon to walk the windswept shore near the port noticed the empty water where ships once waited. “It is really concerning,” said Iryna Kostina, 20. “Our country has a lot of grain, a lot of agriculture, and it’s basically going to be a bad situation for everyone.”