Russia has warned NATO that it would be ready to use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if the alliance tried to cut the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad off from the rest of the country, according to a diplomatic note sent to member states on Wednesday and seen by Reuters.
The note claimed Moscow has “information that NATO is preparing an air and naval blockade of Kaliningrad” and accused the alliance of a “dangerous and reckless course” carrying “high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict.” That included the possibility of “Russian strikes against decision-making centres in the alliance’s member states right from the outset,” the document said.
“Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should Nato countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country,” the note said.
Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, said the alliance is defensive and told Russia to “stop the nuclear threats,” calling the document unhelpful. He played down the danger. “Putin knows that he can never win” a direct escalation with NATO, he said.
In a written response, also seen by Reuters, NATO said none of its exercises or activities threaten Russian territory. It called on Moscow to end its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, refrain from “increasingly reckless behaviour towards the Allies” and “cease its irresponsible nuclear rhetoric.”
Kaliningrad, bordered by Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members, houses Russia’s Baltic fleet and nuclear-capable Iskander missile systems. It sits beside the narrow corridor where Poland and Lithuania have drilled evacuations under the gaze of Russian territory.
The exchange comes more than four and a half years into Russia’s war in Ukraine, with tensions spilling into neighboring states. Poland has raised its air defense posture after what it describes as airspace incursions in recent weeks, and Danish authorities said a Russian warship fired two flares near a Danish military helicopter over the Baltic Sea two weeks ago. NATO has separately said that a Russian sabotage campaign is failing to sway the allies.
Nikolai Sokov, a Vienna-based nuclear analyst and former Russian diplomat, said it is getting harder for Western governments to keep stepping up support for Ukraine, through arms supplies, sanctions, ship interceptions and exercises near Kaliningrad, without tipping into direct confrontation. He said the warning may signal that hard-liners are gaining ground inside Moscow. “They expect more action, including a blockade of the Baltic Sea — just below the level of war in European calculation, but for them this will be open war,” Mr. Sokov said in an online interview. “I see a risk of mutual miscalculation.”
Europe, he said, is applying “full court pressure,” and Russia is answering with a warning that the approach carries real risk.
Apart from the private note, Russian embassies in at least three European countries have issued statements in the past three days accusing NATO of escalating tensions through exercises and planning scenarios involving Kaliningrad. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, called them diplomatic reminders to “hotheads in Europe.” European governments this year have accused Moscow of a “hybrid war” of sabotage and arson on the continent; Russia denies that and rejects Western claims that it is preparing to attack a NATO state.
One NATO diplomat dismissed the note as “only another Russian attempt to intimidate Europeans” and said the alliance’s reply was “firm and responsible.” A senior European defense official took it more gravely: “[This is the] first time since [the] Cold War that Russia is threatening us like this. So this is serious.”