Democrats stand to win back six to 10 percentage points of the Latino vote in November’s midterm elections compared with 2024, while Republicans would lose five of the points President Trump won among those voters, according to a poll released on Tuesday.

The survey, conducted Sept. 4 through 6 by BSP Research and Shaw & Company for the American Business Immigration Coalition and American Families United, questioned 1,353 registered Latino voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. On Nov. 3, voters will decide every House seat, a third of the Senate and 36 governorships.

The swings vary by state. In Pennsylvania, Democrats would gain 10 points to reach 60 percent of the Latino vote for the House, while Republicans would fall 11 points, to 26 percent from 37 percent in the 2024 presidential race. In Georgia, Republicans would hold at 25 percent, with Democrats up three points to 63 percent. In Texas, Democrats would rise three points and Republicans would lose one.

Nothing is settled. Thirty-nine percent of those polled view Democrats in Congress unfavorably, though 63 percent say the same of Republicans. Twelve percent of Latinos remain undecided, 21 percent firmly back the Democrats, and only 2 percent firmly support Republicans.

Two issues are doing the work: deportations and the economy. Sixty-three percent of Latinos in the states surveyed call the treatment of immigrants “one of my main concerns” for 2026, and 59 percent favor a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants with relatives who are U.S. citizens. Sixty-four percent of Latino Republicans, 68 percent of independents and 85 percent of Democrats said they would vote for candidates who put legal status and work permits ahead of mass deportations.

“And yes, we believe this is significantly harming Republicans in the current elections,” said Matt Barreto, who oversaw the poll, in an interview with El País. Many Latinos “say they have a personal connection to someone who is undocumented. They know someone, whether in their family or in their close community; likely even in their own church,” he said.

The poll’s figures back that up. Thirty-four percent of Latinos in those states said they or a family member had been followed by immigration agents or exposed to raids, and 43 percent said they or a relative had been “retroactively regularized.” Murilo Awelani, vice president of the American Business Immigration Coalition, put the reach of the crackdown differently: 34 percent of Hispanic voters say they know someone who has been detained or deported.

The findings were released alongside the launch of the Committee of 100’s Unity Campaign, in which more than 200 Hispanic leaders — elected officials and business, religious, civil rights and community figures — urged President Trump and congressional leaders to grant work permits and legal protections to undocumented immigrants who have lived in the country for years. “We may be MAGA supporters, progressives, or somewhere in between,” they wrote in a new letter. “We are all united in demanding that both Republicans and Democrats in Washington offer long-term solutions,” so that immigrants who have “worked, paid taxes and contributed to our communities” can “live and work legally and without fear.”

The signers include Democratic members of Congress, among them Representative Delia Ramirez of Illinois and Representatives Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar of Texas, and a few Republicans, including Ileana Garcia, a Florida state senator and the founder of Latinas for Trump. Leaders of LULAC, NALEO, UnidosUS, the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and America’s Voice joined the effort.

“Hispanic voters are fed up,” said Massey Villarreal, president of Precision Task Group and a co-chair of the Committee of 100. “We are losing our workforce because of these deportations. Since January, we have lost 200,000 immigrant workers each month. Simply put, there is no way to sustain our economy without the long-standing immigrants who made our prosperity possible.”

Representative Sylvia Garcia said the immigration issue is out of control and that the poll exposes “the disconnect” with the public, which “lies in the fact that Washington is not doing anything aimed at finding a real solution.” She pushed for passage of the American Dream and Promise Act, which would open a path to legal status for beneficiaries of DACA and Temporary Protected Status, programs the administration has rescinded.

The reversal is striking because Latinos helped elect Mr. Trump in 2024, giving him a majority of Hispanic men’s votes for the first time, on promises of a cheaper life and a secure border. Border crossings are now lower than five years ago, but the cost of living has climbed, in part because of the war in Iran and fuel prices, and Texas candidates have been chasing these voters earlier and louder than ever.