On Thursday and Friday, October 29 and 30, the leaders of Europe come to Montreal, Canada’s French-speaking metropolis, for the 21st summit between Canada and the European Union. Prime Minister Mark Carney will receive Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and António Costa, president of the European Council. The agenda, as Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Diab sets out, is long: trade, technology, defence, energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, research, financial services. A joint statement is expected at the end. Costa has said the leaders will launch an “Alliance for the Future” to deepen political, economic and institutional ties.
Behind the list stands a fact that needs no list. Canada’s relations with the United States, its only land neighbour and for generations its main customer, are in sharp decline.
A word the treaties do not contain
In September, in her State of the Union address, von der Leyen proposed that Canada become the European Union’s first “associate member”. Carney sat in the audience, the first foreign head of government to attend that speech. He welcomed the idea, but he chose his own words: what he wanted, he said, was a “unique alliance” rather than membership. He had reason to be careful. The Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think tank, points out that the category of associate member does not exist in the EU treaties.
On Wednesday, the day before the summit, the word disappeared. Euronews reported that the newest draft of the joint declaration no longer mentions associate membership; in its place stands a commitment to “ever closer association”, short of full membership, a change made “at Germany’s insistence.” An earlier draft had gone to the capitals on Tuesday under silent procedure, the method by which a text passes unless some government formally objects. Germany, France, Italy and Greece all “raised issues”. Costa’s office spent hours in intense talks with several capitals, Berlin above all.
Berlin, according to Euronews, wants it spelled out what closer cooperation with Ottawa means in practice, and is wary of a term “absent from the treaties and could carry significant legal implications.” There is a small irony here. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had himself earlier floated a similar status for Ukraine, a way to give Kyiv security guarantees before full accession. The revised text was put under silent procedure once more, to be adopted unless a member state objected that afternoon.
One may reflect that unions, like empires, guard their vocabulary more jealously than their borders. A border can be crossed by a lorry of potash. A word, once written into a communiqué, becomes a precedent, and a precedent becomes a claim.
Carney has said the name of the relationship should not matter in the long run and that the terminology is for the EU to settle. Vina Nadjibulla of the Centre for Strategic Statecraft also says the label matters less than what comes out of it.
The neighbour to the south
Before Donald Trump’s tariffs, nearly 80 percent of Canada’s exports went to the United States. In August, trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed. Trump then imposed a 50 percent levy on $20bn of Canadian goods, about 5.5 percent of the country’s exports. Canada answered with matching tariffs on American steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.
A country that sold four-fifths of its goods to one buyer has learned what dependence costs. It is now shopping for other buyers.
Europe has its own grievance: the same tariffs fall on its exports. Trump has threatened “very heavy tariffs on Europe” if the intent of all this is bad, has called the idea of Canada joining the EU “laughable”, and has labelled Canada a “terrible trade partner”. Von der Leyen describes the project as “a partnership not against anyone else, but for our common strength.” Nadjibulla calls it diversification and resilience rather than an anti-American coalition. Bob Rae, Canada’s ambassador to the United Nations from 2020 to 2025, put it more bluntly: “President Trump does not control our policy.” Engagement with Europe, he said, is normal.
What each side carries to the table
Carney’s office says the EU offers “market power, research depth, and manufacturing strength.” Canada, in return, brings energy, critical minerals, expertise in space, artificial intelligence and quantum computing, and a strong banking system. The ground is already partly laid. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, in force since 2017, removes duties on up to 99 percent of goods traded between the two sides. And Canada is the only non-European participant in SAFE, the EU’s €150bn ($167bn) defence procurement loan programme; its participation deal, concluded in February, gives Canadian firms preferential access.
EU officials, as The Globe and Mail reported, say the new arrangement is meant to bring Canada closer to membership than anything the bloc has done before. Ottawa has been widening its circle in other directions too: only last week it launched a strategic partnership with Türkiye, with trade talks set for November.
Nadjibulla expects sector-by-sector announcements from Montreal. The real test, in her words, is “how quickly the political momentum can turn into specific deals.” The diplomats have fought over a noun for a week. Exporters in Canada, facing 50 percent at the American border, will look at the numbers.