--- title: "Europe Faces Winter With Its Thinnest Gas Reserves on Record, IEA Chief Warns" description: "Fatih Birol says the Iran war has shut Europe’s margin for error, and LNG will cost more even if peace came to the Gulf today" author: "Jan Sokol" published: 2026-10-23T06:02:15Z modified: 2026-10-23T10:42:47Z url: https://rews.cc/a/europe-faces-winter-with-its-thinnest-gas-reserves-on-record-3a4b24 language: en tags: ["energy", "war", "inflation", "diesel", "gas", "europe", "mideast"] publisher: "Rews (https://rews.cc)" --- # Europe Faces Winter With Its Thinnest Gas Reserves on Record, IEA Chief Warns *Fatih Birol says the Iran war has shut Europe’s margin for error, and LNG will cost more even if peace came to the Gulf today* By Jan Sokol · October 23, 2026 · https://rews.cc/a/europe-faces-winter-with-its-thinnest-gas-reserves-on-record-3a4b24 ## In brief - IEA head Fatih Birol says Europe is entering winter with its lowest gas reserves on record and cannot absorb more supply shocks - He blames the US-Israel war on Iran and the disruption in Hormuz, and expects LNG costs to rise even if peace returns - EU storage is about 72% full against a usual 90%, a gap analysts equate to the energy for 10 to 12 million homes - EU energy ministers are reportedly weighing whether to ask households and businesses to ration gas - Gas prices are up 140% since February and Brent crude trades well above $100 a barrel Some warnings arrive with the season. This one came in Berlin on Wednesday, 21 October, on the sidelines of an international conference, from the man whose job is to count what the world burns. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, [told Al Jazeera](https://aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/23/eu-entering-winter-with-lowest-gas-reserves-on-record-iea-boss-warns) that Europe is going into winter with the lowest gas reserves on record, and that it has no strength left to absorb another supply shock. The cause lies far to the south-east, in a narrow passage of sea between Iran and the Arabian peninsula: the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Israel war on Iran has torn the supply chains that run through it. Every region is feeling the disruption, Birol said, but Europe is especially exposed, and it will probably pay more for liquefied natural gas in the coming months. That holds even if peace returned to the Gulf today. “The best day for a ceasefire would have been yesterday,” he said. ## The arithmetic of the tanks Europe’s underground storage, which is meant to carry the continent from November to spring, stands about 72 percent full. In a normal year it would be near 90 percent. Analysts put the missing gas at the energy needed for 10 to 12 million homes. ![An orange radiator resembles a row of seven cream-topped Dutch canal houses with glowing windows against a blue background.](https://rews.cc/img/609260e2055da7df38a521406d1d6c8ffe533b46.webp) Other counts give the same picture or a darker one. On 7 October, storage held [828 terawatt-hours out of roughly 1,132 TWh of capacity](https://energynews.pro/en/eu-gas-storage-at-record-seasonal-low-ahead-of-winter-2026-2027), or 73.1 percent. That was 9.8 percentage points below the same date in 2025 and 15.0 points below the five-year average. [CES Intelligence](https://www.ces-intelligence.com/analysis/european-gas-storage-2026-daily-signal) puts the EU-wide level lower still, at 70.9 percent, which it calls a 15-year low. Germany, it says, is at 57 percent. Behind these percentages are ordinary radiators and factory furnaces. Al Jazeera reports that EU energy ministers are considering whether to ask households and businesses to ration their consumption. A continent that once spoke of energy as a market now has to talk about it as a ration. ## A strait, a second strait, a rival Before the war, nearly a tenth of Europe’s LNG passed through Hormuz. Iranian attacks on ships have cut those imports sharply, and unrest at Bab al-Mandeb, the gateway to the Red Sea, has made things worse. Europe is also bidding against Asian buyers, who depend even more heavily on gas from the Middle East. Gas prices have climbed 140 percent since February. Brent crude trades well above $100 a barrel. ![A tanker carrying three orange tanks travels diagonally through a narrow blue channel between two pale sandy shores.](https://rews.cc/img/79027b1852b1a2b65b60a7a83fcbb725d6c0705d.webp) The war has another face, seen from Tehran. A US blockade has choked off Iran’s oil sales and [driven the rial to record lows](https://rews.cc/a/iran-s-rial-falls-to-record-low-of-2-5-million-per-dollar-as-70f167), and talks have [stalled again over Iran’s enriched uranium](https://rews.cc/a/iran-won-t-let-a-gram-of-enriched-uranium-leave-and-talks-st-a36574). Mark Esper, a former US defense secretary, has said he expects the conflict to [drag on past 2027](https://rews.cc/a/esper-sees-iran-war-dragging-past-2027-possibly-into-the-nex-c64e6b). Birol talks about winter in months. Esper talks about the war in years. Hormuz has long been an obsession at the agency. Birol says he often asks job applicants what they would do if the strait were closed. Now the question has stopped being hypothetical. Gulf states have begun building pipelines that go around the strait, work he says should have been done long ago. ## Shadows Hormuz is not the only pressure. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have halted about a third of Russian diesel deliveries. In March the G7 released 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, its third such release since 2022. The EU still holds about 80 percent of its own emergency stocks, which leaves a cushion, though a thinner one each time it is used. ![A cream-colored crown sits above an orange and black rolled band on a bright blue background, with a black droplet below its right side.](https://rews.cc/img/292989464fa920b516e19dad427b1f6430d29100.webp) Birol, who is usually measured in public, did not hide his frustration. “I am really disappointed that governments didn’t take the necessary measures,” he said. He then described the change he sees across his field: > “I have never ever seen the dark and long shadow of geopolitics so dominant in the energy sector.” “Energy is not currently considered a business but a political leverage,” he added. One reflection, offered only as that. Governments like to treat reserves as a technical matter, something for engineers and spreadsheets, until a cold month shows what they really are: a measure of how far ahead those in power were willing to look. The people who pay for that short-sightedness are seldom the ones who made the decisions. They are the people who open the heating bill in January. Everything now depends on the weather, which no minister controls. “I think if we have a harsh winter, we may see higher prices of natural gas in Europe,” Birol said. And then, looking past this winter to the next one: “Life will not be easy for Europe this year and also next year.”