--- title: "Esper Sees Iran War Dragging Past 2027, Possibly Into the Next Presidency" description: "The former defense secretary said the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz lets China build power while Washington looks away" author: "rews desk" published: 2026-10-08T12:50:51Z modified: 2026-10-09T16:26:56Z url: https://rews.cc/a/esper-sees-iran-war-dragging-past-2027-possibly-into-the-nex-c64e6b language: en tags: ["iran", "war", "oil", "china", "hormuz", "world"] publisher: "Rews (https://rews.cc)" --- # Esper Sees Iran War Dragging Past 2027, Possibly Into the Next Presidency *The former defense secretary said the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz lets China build power while Washington looks away* By rews desk · October 8, 2026 · https://rews.cc/a/esper-sees-iran-war-dragging-past-2027-possibly-into-the-nex-c64e6b ## In brief - Mark Esper said in London the eight-month-old Iran war could run past 2027 and be handed to the next administration in 2029 - Trump said a deal with Tehran is not something he wants; officials are weighing renewed large-scale military operations - A White House official said the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s economy is collapsing - Strait shipping hit its lowest level since July; captains earn up to $100,000 plus $50,000 per voyage, the FT reported - Esper called China America’s “greatest adversary” and urged refocusing on Beijing with European and Asian allies Mark T. Esper, defense secretary in President Trump’s first term, said on Thursday that the war with Iran, now in its eighth month, could continue well into 2027 and might not be settled before Mr. Trump leaves office, [CNBC reported](https://cnbc.com/2026/10/08/trump-iran-war-mark-esper.html). Mr. Esper, who held the Pentagon job from July 2019 to November 2020, spoke on a panel at the GZERO Summit in London, hosted by LSEG and the Eurasia Group. He said any negotiated end would require Mr. Trump to accept a deal that returns the Strait of Hormuz to the status quo before the war and beats the nuclear agreement President Barack Obama reached in 2015. Both, he said, would be very difficult. “So the question is, will he be willing to make that deal and live with the consequences or how the critics judge that deal?” Mr. Esper said. “And so you can see another path where it gets handed off to the next administration in 2029.” Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the event, Mr. Esper said he saw no end to the war “in the foreseeable future.” “I think it continues at this type of pace where we see the American blockade continue, we see occasional outbursts from either side, and it drags along,” he said. The conflict is at an impasse. Mr. Trump said on Wednesday that making a deal with Tehran “isn’t really something that I want to do,” and U.S. officials are considering resuming large-scale military operations in the coming weeks, according to reports. Mr. Esper said he had long favored “the economic strangulation” of Iran but conceded the approach cuts against Washington’s habits. “The challenge is that policy requires time, discipline and patience, and those aren’t things that the states are typically good at doing,” he said. He called it “the least worst option at this point in time,” while doubting it would bring Tehran back to the table. Over the summer, Mr. Trump expanded sanctions on Iran under a strategy he called “Economic D-Day,” and the administration has been talking up the results. A White House official told CNBC on Thursday that the United States holds “a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing.” “Iran has been decimated, and things will go one of two ways; the easy way or the hard way,” the official said, adding that Mr. Trump “is satisfied letting the inevitable Iranian collapse play out.” The picture on the water is less tidy. Shipping traffic through the strait fell this week to its lowest level since July, [Al Jazeera reported](https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/8/the-hormuz-bonus-sailor-salaries-soar-for-transits-amid-iran-war), and shipowners are paying steep premiums to crews willing to make the run. Some captains are earning base salaries of as much as $100,000 plus a $50,000 bonus per voyage through the strait, according to the Financial Times. Mr. Esper’s sharpest warning was about what the war costs in attention. “China is our greatest adversary,” he said. “It’s the lurking threat out there that we’re not paying attention to because we’re so focused, and have been for 20 plus years now, on the Middle East, and Europe is focused on Russia.” Beijing, he said, has carried out “the largest military buildup in history” while consolidating its hold on electric vehicles, rare earths, solar panels and critical materials, and has worked toward dominating the Indo-Pacific by 2049 for at least 30 years. “They have a game plan, and they’re and they’re executing it,” Mr. Esper said. He said he would redirect American effort toward China “in partnership with our European and Asian allies,” on military, diplomatic, economic and technological fronts alike. The Chinese government did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment. ## Sources - [Trump's former defense secretary sees no end in sight for Iran war](https://cnbc.com/2026/10/08/trump-iran-war-mark-esper.html) — cnbc.com - [Tanker captains earn up to $150,000 per trip through Strait of Hormuz](https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/8/the-hormuz-bonus-sailor-salaries-soar-for-transits-amid-iran-war) — aljazeera.com