Texas Democrats say conditions have given them their best chance in decades to win a statewide race, with their Senate nominee leading in recent polls weeks before the November election.
State Representative James Talarico, 37, a former teacher and preacher-in-training from outside Austin, had raised $69 million as of the last reporting deadline, making him one of the cycle’s top fundraisers, the Boston Globe reported on Wednesday. A Talarico victory would make him the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in more than 30 years and would reshape the contest for control of the U.S. Senate.
The electoral environment favours Democrats, the Globe reported, citing an unpopular president whose war has raised inflation and fuel prices. “I don’t think the conditions have ever been so favorable,” said Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic nominee for Senate in 2018. “If ever there were a year,” he said, “given the conditions — Trump, Paxton, the economy, the war in Iran, the candidates, the coalition — it is this year.”
Democrats also point to the vulnerabilities of the Republican nominee, three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton spent nearly a decade fighting securities fraud charges and was impeached by the Republican-led Texas House in 2023 over allegations he used his office to benefit a political donor; the Republican-led Senate acquitted him. His wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year after coverage of his infidelity. A recent Talarico advertisement showed footage of Paxton pocketing a $1,000 Montblanc pen left behind in a courthouse security line.
Paxton, with President Donald Trump’s support, defeated Senator John Cornyn in a contested primary, after many Texas Republicans had hoped to renominate Cornyn to defend the seat. Paxton’s allies argue voters already know his record and have elected him repeatedly. “There is something different going on here,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas. “This race is more competitive than any race we’ve seen in Texas in decades.”
Republican groups have moved to defend the seat, and the Globe reported that the GOP leadership-backed Texas PAC could spend as much as $200 million. “The race is close today, but this is still September,” said Anthony Holm, a Republican consultant who has worked for Paxton. “Texans are about to learn who Talarico is, and that’s going to collapse him.”
Republican strategist Dave Carney, a longtime adviser to Governor Greg Abbott, compared Democratic optimism to Charlie Brown and the football. “They have conned donors into thinking that this is the year,” he said, predicting Democrats would fall short again.
The race runs through Tarrant County, the most populous Republican county in Texas, which voted for O’Rourke in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2020 but not for Kamala Harris in 2024. “As Tarrant County goes, so goes the state,” O’Rourke said. Reyne Telles, executive director of the county Democratic operation, called the county “the last stand.”
Some Republican voters remain uneasy. Ken Botts, a precinct chair in Fort Worth, said he would vote for Paxton despite having “issues with his ethics.” “I’m not a huge fan of Paxton, but he’s the better option,” he said. An August poll found more Texas voters plan to vote for Paxton than consider him “honest and trustworthy,” the Globe reported. At a Fort Worth luncheon last week, attendees were urged to “vote the party,” even “if you can’t vote that candidate.”