Xavier Becerra leads Steve Hilton by 27 percentage points a week before Election Day in California’s governor’s race, an Emerson College poll found, on a November ballot that also asks voters to weigh 14 propositions, six contested House seats and the nation’s first state billionaire tax.
The survey, conducted Oct. 17 to 19, put Becerra at 60 percent of likely voters to Hilton’s 33 percent, with most of the small pool of undecideds leaning to the Democrat when pressed, CalMatters reported. Polls have shown a double-digit Becerra lead since the two men finished atop the June primary, and operatives in Sacramento are already treating the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom as decided.
Not for lack of effort from Mr. Hilton. The former Fox News host, running his first race in the state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one, has barnstormed California, used artificial intelligence to cast himself as a gladiator in Mr. Becerra’s colosseum and sent supporters selfie videos from Skid Row. His proposals include $3 gasoline, tax cuts at every income level, 10 new cities, an “Office of Fun and Freedom” and a rule that animal shelters notify the public before euthanizing dogs. He has said little about how he would win any of it from the Legislature’s Democratic supermajorities.
The approach has produced stumbles. An ad series inviting liberals to “just try” voting Republican drew its loudest objections from conservatives. Days later Mr. Hilton accused Mr. Becerra of lying about his parents’ immigrant roots because his father was born in Sacramento and moved back and forth across the Mexican border as a young man. Latino leaders said the attack misread a common Mexican American experience. “He’s literally saying, ‘I’m not one of you,’” said Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who otherwise calls Mr. Hilton a “substantive” candidate.
Mr. Becerra, a former state attorney general and federal health secretary, has run the opposite kind of race: few new policies and no flashy promises. His pledges include keeping Medi-Cal coverage for people losing it to federal cuts of up to $30 billion a year, two hours of free off-peak electricity for some poor households and more down-payment assistance. In the closing weeks he has spent much of his time campaigning against Proposition 39, the Republican-backed voter ID measure, and stumping for House Democrats rather than for himself.
His one constant is President Trump, who endorsed Mr. Hilton. At a Bakersfield rally, asked about gas prices, Mr. Becerra pointed to the war in Iran. “The first thing, obviously, we have to do is get Trump to end his crazy war abroad,” he said. “But what we can do in California is make sure we don’t allow the spikes to come because of anything we do in California.”
Mr. Hilton has raised $33.6 million to Mr. Becerra’s $40 million, double what the top Republican raised in the 2021 recall. “He’s run a good race,” said Tim Rosales, a GOP consultant. “The fact is that Democratic voters in California, which there are a lot of them, can agree with Hilton on the issues. They just want a Democrat to try to solve them.”
The rest of the ballot is crowded, according to a CalMatters guide. Proposition 40 would make California the first state to tax billionaires. Six House races are in play, including the fight for Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco seat and a Democratic challenge to Republican Rep. David Valadao. In the insurance commissioner’s race, between State Senator Ben Allen and former Supervisor Jane Kim, political committees have spent a record $6 million-plus. And the Trump administration is suing to set aside up to 20,000 mail ballots it says may have gone to noncitizens, and has charged 28 immigrants with illegal voting or registration; Democrats have sued back.
Mail ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days after it. Counties then have 30 days to finish counting, and the secretary of state 38 days to certify.