--- title: "Asia-Pacific Watches U.S. Midterms, but Few Expect Relief on War or Tariffs" description: "Analysts in the region expect Democratic oversight hearings but no reversal of the Iran war or Washington’s tariffs before 2028." author: "rews desk" published: 2026-11-02T23:41:18Z modified: 2026-11-03T04:23:03Z url: https://rews.cc/a/asia-pacific-watches-u-s-midterms-but-few-expect-relief-on-w-d11957 language: en tags: ["trump", "tariffs", "iran", "china", "economy", "asia", "us"] publisher: "Rews (https://rews.cc)" --- # Asia-Pacific Watches U.S. Midterms, but Few Expect Relief on War or Tariffs *Analysts in the region expect Democratic oversight hearings but no reversal of the Iran war or Washington’s tariffs before 2028.* By rews desk · November 2, 2026 · https://rews.cc/a/asia-pacific-watches-u-s-midterms-but-few-expect-relief-on-w-d11957 ## In brief - Asia-Pacific governments hit by the Iran war’s energy shock are watching the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, but few analysts expect big changes - The Philippines has been in a national energy emergency since March, and several Southeast Asian countries have drawn down reserves - Analysts expect Democratic oversight hearings but no end to the war, since Trump can veto limits and an override needs two-thirds - The Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs on Feb. 20, but new 10% and 12.5% tariffs hit 60 partners in July - Trump has delayed a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan to protect his trade truce with China Governments and businesses across the Asia-Pacific, hit hard by the energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, are watching Tuesday’s midterm elections for a change in Washington that few analysts there expect. Outside the Middle East, no region has absorbed more of the war’s cost, [Samantha Ho reported for Al Jazeera](https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/2/war-tariffs-and-china-what-the-us-midterms-mean-for-the-asia-pacific) from Kuala Lumpur. Before the fighting began in January, most of the Gulf oil and gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia, and Iran closed the strait after the strikes. [Tehran is still holding it](https://rews.cc/a/before-the-midterms-tehran-holds-the-strait-and-its-memory-o-87e2a2). The Philippines, which buys more than 90 percent of its crude imports from the Gulf, has been under a national energy emergency since March. According to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, fuel bills have drained foreign reserves in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have spent heavily on fuel subsidies. Democrats are expected to win the House and could take the Senate. That isn’t enough to move policy much, analysts said. “I think nearly all of Asia would like to see enormous changes, across many domains,” said Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Much of the region believes “this will not happen,” he said. Steven Okun, a trade specialist and the chief executive of APAC Advisors in Singapore, said governments were paying attention anyway. “Of course, everybody is watching,” he said. “It’s great political theater.” He expects a Democratic House to bring investigations and oversight hearings, little more. “We might even see an impeachment of the secretary of defense,” he said. ![A locked navy barrel stands on a stage framed by red and blue curtains, beneath a Capitol dome, with three audience silhouettes in front.](https://rews.cc/img/d620e135833dea470b4e4cda261441858be9a590.webp) The Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war. Mr. Trump has called the strikes self-defense and has ignored resolutions demanding a withdrawal. He can veto any limits Congress passes, and Democrats aren’t likely to reach the two-thirds majority needed to override him. Trade is no easier. Last year Mr. Trump put “reciprocal” tariffs of 10 to 50 percent on about 90 countries, among them Cambodia at 49 percent, Laos at 48 percent, Vietnam at 46 percent and Myanmar at 45 percent. The Supreme Court [struck those down 6 to 3 on Feb. 20](https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/supreme-court-strikes-down-tariffs/), ruling that the emergency-powers law he used did not authorize them. Within hours the administration [announced a 10 percent global tariff](https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260220-supreme-court-strikes-down-ieepa-tariffs-what-now) under a different statute. In July it imposed tariffs of 10 percent and 12.5 percent on 60 trading partners over imports made with forced labor, a list that includes China, Japan, South Korea, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. “Congress cannot change that ... Tariffs don’t change. The war doesn’t change,” Mr. Okun said. Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at ISEAS, was a little more hopeful. A strong rebuke of “Trumpism” at the polls could embolden Republicans who favor free trade, he said, offering “a glimmer of hope.” Democrats might win carve-outs that give “a modicum of relief,” in his view, but deeper change will have to wait for 2028. ![Giant black scissors merge with rows of shipping containers narrowing toward a small cream cargo ship against a teal background.](https://rews.cc/img/b4c73ee455b965c754c4fe6cc7cd6a71947088bf.webp) Mr. Kurlantzick said the region wants a steadier trade policy, firmer American security guarantees and a clearer U.S. presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Businesses are watching whether Republicans join Democrats in pushing back on tariffs, arms sales and the economic unpredictability, he said. On China, Mr. Okun expects the next Congress to get tougher whichever party wins. He pointed to three bills: the Remote Access Security Act, which would apply export controls to remote access to American technology; the Chip Security Act, which would require location verification for advanced AI chips; and the MATCH Act, which would press allies to line up their controls on chipmaking equipment. “The person who is least restrictive now on China is the U.S. president,” he said. Mr. Trump has met President Xi Jinping twice this year, and to protect their trade truce he has delayed a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that would be the island’s largest ever. James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University, said the region should brace for a lame-duck president. “We should not be surprised by continued erratic foreign policy,” he said. Democrats have “a poor record” of holding Mr. Trump to account through oversight, he said. “We will have to wait and see if they rise to the moment.”